GM frens,

In today's edition of The Ground Floor we will be breaking down what 2023 will likely have in store for the Web3 world.

Web3 Predictions For 2023

2022 has been a year of all time highs, and local lows for NFTs.

In July 2022, total NFT transaction value reached its all time high — a moment that is meant to mark the peak performance of the NFT market.

In reality, this milestone marked the peak point of people speculating on the prices of NFTs.

Price Discovery

From February 2021 onwards, NFTs entered a period of price discovery as people began to pay significant sums to acquire the NFTs they desired.

In the past, few consumers were willing to pay significant sums to purchase digital assets as the cost of recreating (downloading) & storing digital assets was so incredibly low that there was an infinite supply of digital assets.

This infinite supply resulted in very little value accruing to creators.

NFTs solved this problem by allowing creators to create a set quantity of digital assets.

With an open ledger (blockchain) that's easy to search, consumers can easily confirm the authenticity of assets that are listed on marketplaces such as OpenSea & Blur.

Consumer Psychology

As the value of NFTs increase, they effectively became Veblen goods — a good that increases in value as the price of the good increases.

Such NFTs are status symbols.

NFTs serving as status symbols has been the leading catalyst for the adoption of Web3 throughout the last 2 years, with countless new consumers onboarded to the Web3 world during this period by purchasing a profile picture NFT.

Reddit alone onboarded 3+ million new consumers to Web3 through its avatars in 2022.

The adoption of NFTs as status symbols will continue into 2023, however, I don't expect it to remain the primary catalyst for onboarding new users to Web3.

NFTs as a Feature

NFTs need to become boring, to once again become exciting.

In 2022, all too many Web3 projects focused on the fact that they were building in Web3 and creating NFTs as opposed to creating valuable products for Web3 consumers.

In 2023, my primary prediction is that we will see many talented entrepreneurs creating companies whereby NFTs are a key feature of the products they create, however, NFTs are not the product.

In many cases, we won't even hear the term NFT.

The Gold Standard

This approach is exemplified by Reddit's approach to onboard 3+ million new consumers into the Web3 world to date (previously reported as 10 million).

Throughout Reddit's roll out, these assets were referred to as avatars that would improve profiles on Reddit vs seeking to sell its users on NFTs.

By the end of 2023, we can expect to see many millions of new consumers owning & regularly interacting with NFTs, however, I am willing to wager a small percentage (sub 30%) will understand what an NFT is other than a digital asset they can sell.

This is what success looks like to onboard the next 10 million users to the Web3 world.

Looking Forward

More and more talented people continue to invest their time to build the Web3 world.

The output of this effort will likely take many years to fully come to fruition, however, it looks likely we will gain glimpses of this progress in 2023 as companies continue to create new and improved products and experiences for Web3 consumers.

I have high expectations that 2023 will be an industry defining year for the Web3 world.

Bonus: Projects I will be watching closely in 2023

Doodles 2 by Doodles — Doodles have created some of the most recognizable profile picture artwork in Web3, and the team continues to impress with in person events.

2023 is a big year for the brand as they seek to significantly increase the size of the collection with the Doodles Dooplicators opening in early 2023.

Swoosh by Nike — Nike continues to double down on the investments it has made in Web3, and in 2023 we can expect to see Nike exponentially expand the number of people participating in its Web3 program called Swoosh.

Project Animus by RTFKT — Owned by Nike, RTFKT has already announced that Project Animus will be a core focus for the company in 2023.

Overlord expanding into film & fashion — A project that has continued to command consumers attention in the bear market is Overlord, the creators of Cold Blooded Creepz.

Overlord is working with some very talented people in the fashion & film industry with plans to release an animated series & a successful fashion line.

Starbucks Odyssey by Starbucks — For those who read the 2nd last edition of The Ground Floor, Starbucks Odyssey needs no introduction.

I expect big things from Starbucks in 2023.

The trial of Jimmy the Ape by BAYC — With its new CEO, Yuga Labs is certainly a company to watch in 2023, and the year will be kicked off with the trial of Jimmy the Ape.

Ledger Stax by Ledger — Coming in April 2023, the co-creator of the iPhone is building a hardware device to make it easier for consumers to take self custody of their crypto assets.

💡 Web3 Roundup

1) Bored Apes Next Mint 🙊

2) 750,0000 Manchester United NFTs ⚽

3) Game of Thrones Upcoming NFT Drop 🐲

Writers holdings: At the time of writing I own several RTFKT, Doodles & Overlord NFTs.

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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or business advice to any person or entity.